Can the Scottish team finally end the All Blacks hoodoo?

Things were simpler then. Match number four of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to reflect the home team's momentous achievement.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, New Zealand had finally been halted in a Test.

A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he reported breathlessly and somewhat optimistically. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Leaving the stadium that evening, Scottish fans would have had optimism about what was to come. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and no wins, but clear signs that maybe one was not far off.

A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, they beat them again. Three years further on, identical outcome. Five more years went by and, indeed, the pattern continued.

Recent History

Two decades of matches later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - locations have varied but results remain consistent.

During his tenure, Gregor Townsend has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this challenge is different. Over a century of matches. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Squad Updates

Over the past seasons the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to eight points, five points and eight points in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Through their brilliance, physical dominance, game management, they get the job done.

We're now at the point of the week where positive expectations that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is likely diminishing. Optimism meets historical reality.

Missing Players

Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. To Scottish ambitions it was a significant setback.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's a freak and had he been declared fit then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying.

In an era when most props are replaced early in matches, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations.

Squad Depth

They're without Huw Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with his club. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his Test career consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

Once Rae's shift ends, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. While competent, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class.

Coaching Choices

The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The flanker selection is unconventional, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Past Encounters

Against Ireland, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge did the trick.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, offensive struggles, set-piece issues.

By the Numbers

For all that their blasts at the end, the last 20 minutes is not where New Zealand typically dominates. Across international matches recently, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and fewer after halftime.

Strong opening performances, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and 34 in the fourth. They start aggressively.

What Scotland Needs

During their last meeting, they struck twice in the initial stages. Leading 14-0, victory seemed assured. Scotland fought back impressively to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The clear message is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland needs sustained pressure from the start - maintaining intensity.

In recent years, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have needed to score in the upper twenties. Scotland have got into the 20s only occasionally against the All Blacks.

Conclusion

Perfect execution is required for Scotland. Everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. Disciplinary issues? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? The game is lost.

With perfect execution? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Electric atmosphere. Clinical finishing. Russell being Russell. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Optimistic thinking, perhaps. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If the capability exists, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.